28 October 2006

Kim's bomb and Pax Sinica

North Korea tested a nuclear device earlier this month. The US has very few options in responding to it, while China has more leverage. Full essay.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

The general consensus is that China will be a super power eclipsing the US. Many people of Chinese extraction such as many Singaporean will see this as no bad thing, if not a sense of pride; a case of non white people triumph's over the white!

Beyond Chinese pride, many are sick of the US bullying. To some China's policy of "non-interference" in other country affairs seemed welcoming. However, if China indeed were to become a super power, will it be any less bullying?

I too agree with the thrust of your article, which is that the North Korean issue is a lesson for China's road to super powerdom. If we extrapolate from simply the North Korean issue, China is going to find itself increasing having to take on what many abhorr about US foreign policy -- regime change.

Today China now spreads its influence round the world and, in particular, Africa as it seek energy and resources. For example, it nows find itself having to, now do deal, with odious regimes. Like many of its dealings with these regime, it will find many potentially becoming new the new Kims.

It will be interesting to see how China will fare should it as many believe it becomes a super power.

Jordan said...

Once China becomes strong enough to stand alone, it might discard us. A little later it might even turn against us, if its perception of its interests requires it.
- Henry Kissinger

America under the Bush Administration owes China $3 trillion.it is a FACT that Bush seeks the advise of Kissinger even now. China is emerging as the next superpower of the world.
Here are some FACTS.
North Korea has a 880-mile border with China its lifeline to the outside world. About 39 percent of its trade last year was with China, which, critically, supplies it with 80 to 90 percent of its oil. Trafficking in money transfers and human beings also flourishes. Until now, North Korea's ships have regularly visited Japan, from which relatives sent cash and goods, but North Korea’s nuclear test is expected to end that trade. Why? If North Korea shoots its nuclear missle, Tokyo is will be an easy target, as well as Los Angeles.

China does not wish to see a collapse of North Korea, that will drive North Koreans into China. Aside from that, the end of North Korea could bring about the reunification of the Korean peninsula under America's ally- south Korea.
South Korea has, in recent years, challenged China over the legacy of Koguryo, an ancient Korean kingdom whose rule extended into present-day China. The region is home to hundreds of thousands of ethnic Korean-Chinese, who face discrimination in China and might be sympathetic toward a reunified Korea making territorial claims.
China also faces Russia, where North Korea has a 11 mile border n heavily -guarded.
It is in China;s interest to keep the balance of power tilted towards China, and North Korea is the key to China's successful balancing act.
America realizes the delicate situation that it is in. The current administration has concentrated all of its army, money on the middle east. Leaving China to slowly consolidate its postion in the East.
China will be a superpower.
other Countries with nuclear power are:
India, Pakistan, Israel, coming up is Iran.
When Bush called North Korea 'the axis of evil', it ignited this surge of power from North korea.
For now, everything is walking a fine line, China has more to complete on its agenda, but it will be a superpower soon. That also helps Kim jong il of North Korea.
Singaporeans of Chinese descent may feel proud of China, even tho' the Chinese do not recognize 'oversea chinese' as Chinese from China.
Everything else, is speculation now, America has to pull out of Iraq, and this coming nov mid-term elections is carefully watched worldwide.
Americans are sick of Bush, cheney, rumsfeld, and no one pays any attention to Condy Rice.
To ban stem cell research because of religious beliefs will set America back. All because Bush sees himself as the pastor?
So let us wait and see the outcome of this coming elections in America.

Jordan said...

The latest news is that the US may deploy its patriot missles near Tokyo.

patriothttp://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/28/D8L213900.html

America no longer has the troops to fight immediate wars...all used up in Iraq n Afghanistan.
So far the dead is stands at 2812 as of 28Oct 2006. We may see 3,000 this Dec.

The coming elections?- americans fear that the elections will be rigged...again. The Republicans have gerry-mandeared many of the districts, the voting machines are dubious? But, there will be film crews around to video-tape the voting, n it will be on youtube.

ah said...

Pfff.

Not entirely convinced China will ever become a sole super power ala USA. A multipolar world seems more likely. Extrapolation of China's growth does not automatically assume China will eclipse the USA. China's growth is fuelled from a very low base - it is very easy to grow from a low base (as long as a favouable business and investment environment , mostly free of corruption is provided). This is basic economics. It gets way more difficult near the top of the ladder.

China has some truly fearsome obstacles to overcome, from 0.5-1 billion peasants to integrate into the economy, massive poverty, social instability, a rapidly ageing population and a lack of ideological legitimacy.

And as for Singapore seeing a Chinese super power as a sense of pride riiiight... Singapore's problems do not concern the rise of China, but the rise of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Jordan said...

'Singapore's problems do not concern the rise of China, but the rise of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.'
29 October, 2006 17:02

Yes, absolutely, I concur.
For Thailand, it faces its own muslim insurgency problems.
The practice of Islam is concentrated in Thailand's southernmost provinces, where the vast majority of the country's Muslims, predominantly Malay in origin, were found. Singapore is surrounded by 3 Islamic countries, albeit, that Indonesia is poor.
That is something that political history has not unfold yet for Singapore's future.

Teck Soon said...

I think that stating that the US is "bullying" the rest of the world is misleading. The US's actions are fairly predictable, and they generally only "bully" totalitarian dictatorships. If Singapore fits into that category, then we should be afraid too. If not, then we probably have more to fear from China becoming a superpower than from the US. A country such as China, whose actions do not always reflect those of its people, who have a history of repressing its own people, denying self determination to millions in a single province through missile threats, a China whose leaders are not elected by or representative of its people, may not have as predictable actions as the US. "Chinese pride" is an irrational, nationalistic, even racist feeling. We should instead feel pride for ideas and ideals, not our race! Americans feel pride because of their liberties and democratic institutions. If some Singaporeans are only proud of being Chinese, then it's really sad.

A "non-interference" policy is useful to advocate if you are a dictatorship, fearful of the powerful free countries. The US, however, must weigh non-interference with, as an example, standing by and allowing genocides. Bill Clinton said that the greatest failure of his presidency was non-interference in Rwanda, allowing a bloody hacking genocide. Understanding situations from the perspective of the Americans will aid our understanding of this situation. I am not excusing Americans' actions in the world, but attempting to rationalise them.

I really fear the day that China rises, in its current totalitarian form, as a superpower. The Chinese bear much hatred to the Japanese, to the "white people", and to the Americans that China's future actions as a superpower may not be so rational. Shall we advocate destroying one of the "white countries" for colonial revenge, for "non white people trimph's over the white" as the first anonymous commenter said, and ignore the incompetent leaders we have at home in China or in Singapore? The current anti-American climate in the world serves dictatorships well, as they can focus their populace's hatred elsewhere.

I doubt China will interfere in North Korea. They have to tread carefully, or some Chinese may start advocating regime change in Beijing too.

Jordan said...

America has a political history of clever well-manipulated ways of acquiring countries. The Spanish-
American war in the 19th C, with the blowing up the American ship, USS Maine, no one was able to prove who blew up this ship, but it enabled America to remove the states that belonged to Spain. Originally, California, Arizona, Texas all belonged to Mexico.
With the signing of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), America has failed to strengthen its commitment to it.
With this historical track record, and the $3 trillion that America owes to China, will America really allow China to become a superpower?
Your guess is as good as mind.This thought has always bothered me. The real threat looming in the background for America may be Russia.

Teck Soon said...

I believe that the manifest destiny of 19th century America is an inappropriate analogy and I disagree that America has intentions of acquiring other countries. In fact, the 20th century U.S. has had many opportunities to acquire colonies, including The Philippines, Cuba (granted by the 1898 Treaty of Paris with Spain), Japan, West Germany, Panama, but quickly rid itself of its possessions/interests. Since the US was itself once an oppressed colony, I hardly think that Americans wish to be colonisers themselves. Americans generally believe and have a consistent foreign policy that people should have the right of self determination. Jordan, why do you believe that America would perceive Russia as a threat? There are many countries with which the US has a trade deficit, including China and Japan. Why should this influence peaceful relations? I think the deeper issue is whether the US perceives countries as belligerent, unpredictable dictatorships. China and Russia do not fit into this category. North Korea does. The US does not even seem to mind dictatorships, as long as they are predictable and unthreatening, like Saudi Arabia and Cuba. It's unpredictability that scares Americans.

Jordan said...

To 'teck soon'.
you make some good points.
Allow me to correct myself, America is not interested in acquiring 'countries'/states. I agree. America does not see Japan as a threat, and neither does Japan, after WW2.
North Korea?- it lives in the shadow of China. this comment,about NPT n North Korea, it is china that has said that Korea will rejoin in the talks.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/10007.html

America will go with dictatorships, as long as the dictators go along with America's political agendas.
Now we have China, which everyone knows is going to be a superpower.
America sees China as a threat, and as long as China will continue to abide by America's political agendas, she has nothing to fear.
However, China is an 'unknown territory'? America does not have a history with China as Japan has with America.
There is no way that America will allow China as a superpower. It is just not the way of thinking for America.
Russia has oil, America n Europe has accused Russia of not selling more to them. Russia may again be the largest oil exporter in the world, but very little comes to the United States. Russia's oil industry is dominated by rich and aggressive young private companies.
with Russia?- it will be an economic problem that will irk America.
you hit the nail right on its head with your commennt :
" It's unpredictability that scares Americans."
And that is China in about 10 years.